August 2025 continues to test the resilience of the market. European benchmarks are losing ground, diesel is weighing on inventories, Mexico is ramping up imports, and in the U.S., energy has become a point of political contention. Below is a summary of the key developments and signals in recent days.
Petroleum Product Prices: A Steady Descent
According to Argus (August 14), butane and propane continue their decline. Butane at the Brest border is priced at €412 per tonne (down 3), or $476 (down 4.5). Propane stands at $582 (down 3), and the propane-butane mix at Ukraine’s western border is at $621 per tonne (down 4). In the ARA region (Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp), propane fell to $444.5 (down 6.75), and butane to $469.75 (down 5.75).
This decline reflects weak physical demand, lack of regional arbitrage, and seasonal sluggishness. Even the Turkish and Ukrainian markets are offering little support for now.
Platts and EUM also reported price drops. Ultra-low sulfur diesel (FOB NWE) fell to $657.25 per tonne, jet fuel (CIF NWE) to $689.25, and 0.1% gasoil in the Mediterranean to $659.75. Jet fuel and diesel are falling in sync. The spread between CIF and FOB remains in the $10–12 range, but actual arbitrage opportunities are practically absent. Freight rates are stable but fail to offset the price pressure.
United States: Tariff Growth and Political Rhetoric
According to the Financial Times (August 15), electricity tariffs in the U.S. have risen by nearly 7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the average gasoline price dropped below $3.70 per gallon in 15 states — for the first time since spring 2023.
Energy policy is increasingly influencing politics. Democrats continue pushing for decarbonization, while Republicans appeal to voters with the argument: “We need prices, not ideology.” Energy is shaping up to be a central issue heading into the 2026 elections — especially in swing states with a vulnerable middle class and a high dependence on thermal generation.
Mexico: Import Growth and Refining Demand
According to the Mexico Fuels Report (August 14), diesel imports into the country rose by 4.1% in just one week. At the same time, CARB diesel — meeting California environmental standards — dropped by almost 25%. Volumes of VGO (vacuum gas oil) from Europe increased, with at least two new contracts signed at the ports of Monterrey and Tampico.
Domestic demand for reformulated gasoline in Mexico is also rising, driven by the tourist season and a growing vehicle fleet in the Yucatán region. Mexico remains one of the few points of demand growth in the Western Hemisphere, actively pulling in heavy components from both the U.S. and Europe.
Global Signals and Risks
Logistics along the Rhine River are under threat, with water levels near Koblenz dropping rapidly. If the situation worsens, Germany could face serious disruptions in diesel and chemical deliveries to inland regions.
For the first time in five years, China has purchased gasoil directly from India, bypassing the European market. This not only reduces competitive pressure but also removes a key distribution route for ARA-sourced products.
The Brent futures curve has shifted into a firm contango. According to Bank of America, oil prices may fall below $60 per barrel by year-end. The pressure is coming from three fronts: weak demand, OPEC+ refusing to cut output, and a flat response from U.S. shale producers to price signals.
The broad decline in prices amidst weak demand is no longer just a correction — it’s a structural challenge. Spread-based strategies are becoming less profitable. Market participants are now looking for new entry points in an environment shaped by macroeconomic headwinds, logistical bottlenecks, and political tensions. Once again, energy becomes a battlefield — for margins, for access, and for votes.
