(Based on LPG + refined products data from Platts & Argus)
Crude & Products: Macro Picture Improving
European refined products bounced back after previous losses:
- ULSD 10 ppm (FOB Med): up $13.5 to $679.75/mt
- Jet (FOB Med): up $10.5 to $682.75/mt
- Gasoline 10 ppm (FOB Med): up $9.5 to $705.25/mt
- Naphtha (FOB Med): up $2.5 to $529.00/mt
Jet and diesel were driven by news of Exxon’s Fawley refinery outage, tighter supply, and seasonal demand recovery.
Overall bullish sentiment supported by demand in West Africa and Mediterranean.
- LPG: Mixed Dynamics Continue
Based on August 6 Argus report: - Propane CIF ARA large cargo: $444.75/mt (+$2.25)
- Propane Far East Index (AFEI): $514/mt (+$11.50)
- APDI (Polish Domestic): $621.5/mt (+$1.5)
But:
- Propane-Butane Ukraine daf: $637.5/mt (−$2.5)
- Butane Algeria Bethioua: $415/mt (−$20)
Differential Propane daf Brest vs ARA: narrowed to +134.25 $/mt
Insight: While indexes show moderate growth, physical diffs are tightening — signs of a cooling spot market, particularly east of Poland.
- Black Sea & Mediterranean Fuel Oil
HSFO Med: slightly up +1 $/mt - LSFO 1% (FOB Med): down −1.75 $/mt to $447/mt
- Marine Fuel 0.5% (FOB Med): up +3.5 $/mt to $467.5/mt
Demand in North Africa and the Middle East remains stable, helping clear Mediterranean supply.
Bitumen and Base Oils: Seasonal Lull
- Bitumen FOB Med: $415.5/mt (−13)
- SN500 Base oil FOB Europe: $960/mt (−15)
Weak summer demand is pulling margins lower — this is seasonal and expected.
Summary
Europe is firming across middle distillates
LPG is showing early signs of a cool-off
HSFO/Bitumen/Base oils trending soft, but not disruptive
Keep eyes on:
East-West LPG spreads — could flip
Mediterranean diesel margins — tightening fast